In Hooper, Mishkin and Sufi’s study, they find significant evidence of both negative slope and nonlinearity in the Phillips curve, meaning that the wage…

June 2022

How reliable is the credit market as the economy’s “canary in a coal mine”?

May 2022

A brief run-through of the Fed balance sheet
All eyes on recession risks

April 2022

What 5y5y swaps tell us about the terminal rate
Financial conditions have tightened around 125bp since last year on the strength of the Fed’s forward guidance alone, long before any hikes have even…
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