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Cut the Fed some slack
Financial conditions have tightened around 125bp since last year on the strength of the Fed’s forward guidance alone, long before any hikes have even…
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6
What is normal when you’re normalising
A brief run-through of the Fed balance sheet
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1
Monetary Policy in The Time of Protectionism
Protectionism, specifically through mechanisms such as tariffs, can affect domestic prices in several ways.
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Let’s Revise II
In a previous post from 2023 on this Substack, titled “Let’s Revise”, I wrote,
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Extra credit
How reliable is the credit market as the economy’s “canary in a coal mine”?
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Negative Interest Rate Policy and Yield Curve Control
“Perhaps a complex offer by the central bank to buy and sell at stated prices gilt-edged bonds of all maturities, in place of the single bank rate for…
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2
Exogenous vs. Endogenous Policymaking Shocks
It’s been a whirlwind month since my last post, with the world reeling from tariff hikes and bold policy moves -dare we call them "Trump shocks"?
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Transitory
“As I’ve mentioned, it can be the case that it’s appropriate sometimes to look through inflation if it’s going to go away quickly without action by us…
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6
Monetary Policy in Times of Dollar Dominance
Previously, we discussed monetary policy during times of protectionism.
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Peeking past the peak
What 5y5y swaps tell us about the terminal rate
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1
Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT)
Rumour is, the Fed is letting go of FAIT, so here’s a little bit about it:
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The Fed and the Phillips Curve
Fighting the last inflation battle (for now)
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